February 6th, 2008


It strains credulity

Once happenstance

Twice is co-incidence

Thrice is enemy action.

So, what are we to make of five internet cables cut in the Middle East in the past week.

It started on the 31st of January, and the effect was limted, directly, to the Middle East, and India. Since no small amount of business traffic moves through those cables, it had some ripple.

The more suspicious immediately imputed it to some hostile act; and the U.S. was top of the mark for finger pointing. The main reason people suspected foul play was the lack of outside cause being apparent.

The first suggestions (of a wayward anchor) seem to have been ruled out.

But acciddents happen.

But five?. In a week? All in the same area?

None of which seem to have any apparent cause?

Add the, almost complete lack of coverage (at least in the States) and it looks damned odd. I have no ideas as to who might be doing it (and, if we assume it's one actor, not a number with aims that all require cutting cables in that area, the questions get broader), but I can see reasons why it might be done.

Most likely (IMO) is someone who wants to be able to sniff traffic. Why they needed to break the cables to do that, I don't know (and I don't know enough about the systems to be sure that's a very good guess, but apart from trying to isolate the reagion; which isn't really possible, all that seems to be happening is a great slowdown in traffic, not a blockade, I don't see any reason for this).

Maybe it's just testing a system, making sure it works, so that should cutting some area off completely be needful, it can be done.

Maybe there's a giant squid who hates the cables.

But, whatever it is, I no longer think it's accidental.

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